Prediction evidence
incorrectPolicy v1.0Source post
Published 27 Aug 2026, 16:34 UTC · fetched 12 Oct 2026, 06:29 UTC
The Wolf Of All Streets
@scottmelker
Quoting · 27 Aug 2026, 12:37 UTC · context given to the AI
$BTC Coinbase has a 945 BTC sell wall sitting at $81K. That's an unusually large amount for Coinbase orderbook. https://t.co/DBeVUh1B3SThis is bullish. Massive sell walls are used to hold price down while someone accumulates.View original on X ↗
How this was scored
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
- Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $80,385 at 27 Aug 2026, 17:00 UTC.
- Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $77,785 at 28 Aug 2026, 17:00 UTC.
r = 77785.06 / 80384.78 − 1 = -3.23%- Direction d = +1 (bullish), so
d × r = -3.23%against a neutral band of ±1.00% → incorrect
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
AI interpretation
Uses only text available at publication time
- Asset
- Bitcoin (BTC)
- Direction
- ▲ Bullish
- Intent
- explicit
- Horizon
- 24 hours (default, none stated)
- Evidence span
- “This is bullish. Massive sell walls are used to hold price down while someone accumulates.”
- Confidence
- 90%
- Review state
- auto accepted
- Model / prompt
- gemini-3.1-flash-lite · prompt-v1
Outcome record
- Status
- incorrect
- Baseline price
- $80,385
- Evaluation price
- $77,785
- Move
- -3.23%
- Neutral threshold
- ±1.00%
- Price provider
- coinbase
- Evaluated at
- 13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
- Policy version
- v1.0