Prediction evidence
correctPolicy v1.0Source post
Published 26 Aug 2026, 21:16 UTC · fetched 13 Oct 2026, 05:56 UTC
K A L E O
@CryptoKaleo
Quoting · 26 Aug 2026, 14:16 UTC · context given to the AI
BREAKING: 20% chance Bitcoin drops to $50,000 before $100,000 https://t.co/rpH5YZtGs8Anyone who ever said this would happen within the last two months should delete their account. Up only from here. https://t.co/KLRZuXUkMyView original on X ↗
How this was scored
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
- Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $78,719 at 26 Aug 2026, 22:00 UTC.
- Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $80,210 at 27 Aug 2026, 22:00 UTC.
r = 80210.39 / 78718.61 − 1 = +1.90%- Direction d = +1 (bullish), so
d × r = +1.90%against a neutral band of ±1.00% → correct
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
AI interpretation
Uses only text available at publication time
- Asset
- Bitcoin (BTC)
- Direction
- ▲ Bullish
- Intent
- explicit
- Horizon
- 24 hours (default, none stated)
- Evidence span
- “Up only from here.”
- Confidence
- 90%
- Review state
- auto accepted
- Model / prompt
- gemini-3.1-flash-lite · prompt-v1
Outcome record
- Status
- correct
- Baseline price
- $78,719
- Evaluation price
- $80,210
- Move
- +1.90%
- Neutral threshold
- ±1.00%
- Price provider
- coinbase
- Evaluated at
- 13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
- Policy version
- v1.0