Prediction evidence
correctPolicy v1.0Source post
Published 26 Aug 2026, 18:05 UTC · fetched 13 Oct 2026, 05:55 UTC
Michaël van de Poppe
@CryptoMichNL
#Bitcoin bouncing back up is a good sign. If this lasts, and it remains above $78,000, I don't see any issue of not going towards those highs again. https://t.co/egLfCAbBi7View original on X ↗
How this was scored
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
- Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $78,471 at 26 Aug 2026, 19:00 UTC.
- Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $80,176 at 27 Aug 2026, 19:00 UTC.
r = 80175.91 / 78471.39 − 1 = +2.17%- Direction d = +1 (bullish), so
d × r = +2.17%against a neutral band of ±1.00% → correct
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
AI interpretation
Uses only text available at publication time
- Asset
- Bitcoin (BTC)
- Direction
- ▲ Bullish
- Intent
- inferred
- Horizon
- 24 hours (default, none stated)
- Evidence span
- “If this lasts, and it remains above $78,000, I don't see any issue of not going towards those highs again.”
- Confidence
- 70%
- Review state
- auto accepted
- Model / prompt
- gemini-3.1-flash-lite · prompt-v1
Outcome record
- Status
- correct
- Baseline price
- $78,471
- Evaluation price
- $80,176
- Move
- +2.17%
- Neutral threshold
- ±1.00%
- Price provider
- coinbase
- Evaluated at
- 13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
- Policy version
- v1.0
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