Prediction evidence
unscoredPolicy v1.0Source post
Published 26 Aug 2026, 15:13 UTC · fetched 12 Oct 2026, 06:29 UTC
The Wolf Of All Streets
@scottmelker
Quoting · 26 Aug 2026, 13:02 UTC · context given to the AI
Bitcoin Flipped From FEAR to GREED in Just 12 Days - Too Fast? https://t.co/bTDFcomx3VKalshi has Bitcoin reclaiming 100k by January 2027 at 29%, so sentiment isn't near bullish yet, which means there's still fuel here "When will Bitcoin cross 100k again on Kalshi? Still very little confidence of that, even after all of this. We have a 29% chance that it happens by January 2027, which is still relatively soon." "Back here, and this is not that long ago, just in May, people really believed it was going to 50 something percent chance. So we're nowhere near even the high sentiment that this bull market is back." "Looking at how people are actually placing their bets, that means there could still be some more fuel here. If that was 75%, I would be very worried." Austin: "Especially on short term price moves, you've got to fade the crowd." "On the flip side of the coin, if you're a long term investor, don't even look at that stuff. Just keep DCAing. The worst thing you can do is change ..."View original on X ↗
How this was scored
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
unscored Awaiting manual review
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
AI interpretation
Uses only text available at publication time
- Asset
- Bitcoin (BTC)
- Direction
- ▲ Bullish
- Intent
- inferred
- Horizon
- 24 hours (default, none stated)
- Evidence span
- “Looking at how people are actually placing their bets, that means there could still be some more fuel here.”
- Confidence
- 70%
- Review state
- needs review · Low confidence (70%)
- Model / prompt
- gemini-3.1-flash-lite · prompt-v1
Outcome record
- Status
- unscored
- Baseline price
- —
- Evaluation price
- —
- Move
- —
- Neutral threshold
- ±1.00%
- Price provider
- —
- Evaluated at
- 13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
- Policy version
- v1.0
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