Prediction evidence

unscoredPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 26 Aug 2026, 15:13 UTC · fetched 12 Oct 2026, 06:29 UTC

The Wolf Of All Streets

@scottmelker

Quoting · 26 Aug 2026, 13:02 UTC · context given to the AI

Bitcoin Flipped From FEAR to GREED in Just 12 Days - Too Fast? https://t.co/bTDFcomx3V
Kalshi has Bitcoin reclaiming 100k by January 2027 at 29%, so sentiment isn't near bullish yet, which means there's still fuel here "When will Bitcoin cross 100k again on Kalshi? Still very little confidence of that, even after all of this. We have a 29% chance that it happens by January 2027, which is still relatively soon." "Back here, and this is not that long ago, just in May, people really believed it was going to 50 something percent chance. So we're nowhere near even the high sentiment that this bull market is back." "Looking at how people are actually placing their bets, that means there could still be some more fuel here. If that was 75%, I would be very worried." Austin: "Especially on short term price moves, you've got to fade the crowd." "On the flip side of the coin, if you're a long term investor, don't even look at that stuff. Just keep DCAing. The worst thing you can do is change ..."
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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

unscored Awaiting manual review

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset
Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction
▲ Bullish
Intent
inferred
Horizon
24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span
“Looking at how people are actually placing their bets, that means there could still be some more fuel here.”
Confidence
70%
Review state
needs review · Low confidence (70%)
Model / prompt
gemini-3.1-flash-lite · prompt-v1

Outcome record

Status
unscored
Baseline price
—
Evaluation price
—
Move
—
Neutral threshold
±1.00%
Price provider
—
Evaluated at
13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
Policy version
v1.0

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