Prediction evidence
incorrectPolicy v1.0Source post
Published 26 Aug 2026, 12:00 UTC · fetched 12 Oct 2026, 06:24 UTC
Ash Crypto
@AshCrypto
BITCOIN IS ABOUT TO CRASH REALLY HARD. https://t.co/oAjQpjrUMGView original on X ↗
How this was scored
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
- Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $78,300 at 26 Aug 2026, 13:00 UTC.
- Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $79,276 at 27 Aug 2026, 13:00 UTC.
r = 79276.07 / 78299.51 − 1 = +1.25%- Direction d = −1 (bearish), so
d × r = -1.25%against a neutral band of ±1.00% → incorrect
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
AI interpretation
Uses only text available at publication time
- Asset
- Bitcoin (BTC)
- Direction
- ▼ Bearish
- Intent
- explicit
- Horizon
- 24 hours (default, none stated)
- Evidence span
- “BITCOIN IS ABOUT TO CRASH REALLY HARD.”
- Confidence
- 100%
- Review state
- auto accepted
- Model / prompt
- gemini-3.1-flash-lite · prompt-v1
Outcome record
- Status
- incorrect
- Baseline price
- $78,300
- Evaluation price
- $79,276
- Move
- +1.25%
- Neutral threshold
- ±1.00%
- Price provider
- coinbase
- Evaluated at
- 13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
- Policy version
- v1.0