Prediction evidence
incorrectPolicy v1.0Source post
Published 25 Aug 2026, 16:43 UTC · fetched 13 Oct 2026, 05:55 UTC
il Capo
@CryptoCapo_
Quoting · 21 Aug 2026, 09:01 UTC · context given to the AI
Short-term correction likely.$BTC LTF view After this strong bullish move, I can see a short-term local top forming around 80k. Eyes on 74k-75k and 69k-70k as potential local bottoms. Alts could retrace 10%-20%. Then bullish continuation. PS: I'm not selling, just ready to buy more if that happens.View original on X ↗
How this was scored
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
- Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $79,153 at 25 Aug 2026, 17:00 UTC.
- Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $77,987 at 26 Aug 2026, 17:00 UTC.
r = 77986.94 / 79153.3 − 1 = -1.47%- Direction d = +1 (bullish), so
d × r = -1.47%against a neutral band of ±1.00% → incorrect
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
AI interpretation
Uses only text available at publication time
- Asset
- Bitcoin (BTC)
- Direction
- ▲ Bullish
- Intent
- inferred
- Horizon
- 24 hours (default, none stated)
- Evidence span
- “Then bullish continuation.”
- Confidence
- 80%
- Review state
- auto accepted
- Model / prompt
- gemini-3.1-flash-lite · prompt-v1
Outcome record
- Status
- incorrect
- Baseline price
- $79,153
- Evaluation price
- $77,987
- Move
- -1.47%
- Neutral threshold
- ±1.00%
- Price provider
- coinbase
- Evaluated at
- 13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
- Policy version
- v1.0