Prediction evidence

correctPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 25 Aug 2026, 16:23 UTC · fetched 12 Oct 2026, 06:29 UTC

The Wolf Of All Streets

@scottmelker

Quoting · 25 Aug 2026, 16:04 UTC · context given to the AI

https://t.co/qvp82CVFke
The same signals that marked the bottom are now showing up as signs of a local top "A lot of the signals we saw that were very key signs of a bottom are now showing up as key signs of a local top. I do not think this move is over, I'm just getting excited to hopefully buy some dips as price drops here. Bitcoin has a tendency not to give you the dips you want, but that's what I'm looking for" "Those signals are overbought RSI now. We had almost historically high RSI on the daily chart. We're seeing bearish divergence with overbought RSI on lower timeframes, meaning strength abating even as price continued up" "And we're at key levels of resistance. The 50 moving average on the weekly chart, we basically went right up to it and got rejected. That's the kind of area you'd be looking for price to retrace below, to gather up strength to go back above"
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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

  1. Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $79,153 at 25 Aug 2026, 17:00 UTC.
  2. Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $77,987 at 26 Aug 2026, 17:00 UTC.
  3. r = 77986.94 / 79153.3 − 1 = -1.47%
  4. Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = +1.47% against a neutral band of ±1.00% → correct

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset
Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction
▼ Bearish
Intent
inferred
Horizon
24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span
“A lot of the signals we saw that were very key signs of a bottom are now showing up as key signs of a local top.”
Confidence
80%
Review state
auto accepted
Model / prompt
gemini-3.1-flash-lite · prompt-v1

Outcome record

Status
correct
Baseline price
$79,153
Evaluation price
$77,987
Move
-1.47%
Neutral threshold
±1.00%
Price provider
coinbase
Evaluated at
13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
Policy version
v1.0

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