Prediction evidence
correctPolicy v1.0Source post
Published 25 Aug 2026, 16:23 UTC · fetched 12 Oct 2026, 06:29 UTC
The Wolf Of All Streets
@scottmelker
Quoting · 25 Aug 2026, 16:04 UTC · context given to the AI
https://t.co/qvp82CVFkeThe same signals that marked the bottom are now showing up as signs of a local top "A lot of the signals we saw that were very key signs of a bottom are now showing up as key signs of a local top. I do not think this move is over, I'm just getting excited to hopefully buy some dips as price drops here. Bitcoin has a tendency not to give you the dips you want, but that's what I'm looking for" "Those signals are overbought RSI now. We had almost historically high RSI on the daily chart. We're seeing bearish divergence with overbought RSI on lower timeframes, meaning strength abating even as price continued up" "And we're at key levels of resistance. The 50 moving average on the weekly chart, we basically went right up to it and got rejected. That's the kind of area you'd be looking for price to retrace below, to gather up strength to go back above"View original on X ↗
How this was scored
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
- Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $79,153 at 25 Aug 2026, 17:00 UTC.
- Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $77,987 at 26 Aug 2026, 17:00 UTC.
r = 77986.94 / 79153.3 − 1 = -1.47%- Direction d = −1 (bearish), so
d × r = +1.47%against a neutral band of ±1.00% → correct
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
AI interpretation
Uses only text available at publication time
- Asset
- Bitcoin (BTC)
- Direction
- ▼ Bearish
- Intent
- inferred
- Horizon
- 24 hours (default, none stated)
- Evidence span
- “A lot of the signals we saw that were very key signs of a bottom are now showing up as key signs of a local top.”
- Confidence
- 80%
- Review state
- auto accepted
- Model / prompt
- gemini-3.1-flash-lite · prompt-v1
Outcome record
- Status
- correct
- Baseline price
- $79,153
- Evaluation price
- $77,987
- Move
- -1.47%
- Neutral threshold
- ±1.00%
- Price provider
- coinbase
- Evaluated at
- 13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
- Policy version
- v1.0
