Prediction evidence

neutralPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 24 Aug 2026, 22:15 UTC · fetched 12 Oct 2026, 06:34 UTC

Anthony Pompliano 🌪

@APompliano

I spoke with @romanyam, the top AI safety expert in the world. He literally coined the term “AI safety” about 15 years ago. Roman explained if AGI is here, what the real threat of AI is to humanity, how many jobs could be lost, why he is bullish on bitcoin, how physical AI & robotics will likely play out, and whether the frontier model labs actually care about AI safety. This was a profound conversation with someone everyone should get to know. YouTube: https://t.co/vSEKhdshCh Spotify: https://t.co/F8oV9LZM2E Apple: https://t.co/5DQcJSHvr9 TIMESTAMPS: 0:00 - Intro 0:50 - Have we already hit AGI? 2:51 - Why we can't control superintelligence 5:14 - Could a global ban on superintelligence actually work? 8:45 - Are AI labs really taking safety seriously? 15:52 - Mass job loss & the economics of AGI 22:03 - The surprising link between AI & bitcoin 29:07 - A world of AI abundance, & why scarcity wins 31:45 - AI watermarks, & the death of trust 35:33 - Pros & Cons of physical AI world 38:40 - What would it take to trust humanoid robot? 39:50 - Brain computer interfaces: a good idea? 42:25 - Rise & risks of deapfakes 49:40 - Controlling AI: Governments vs private companies 54:07 - Open source vs closed, & the US vs China AI race 57:34- Is bitcoin the one crypto project built to last? 1:01:40 - Limitations of physical AI: bottlenecks & shortages 1:03:50 - Impact of healthcare with AI 1:06:09 - What would it take to actually declare AGI? 1:09:35 - How the public can help with AI safety
View original on X ↗

How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

  1. Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $78,735 at 24 Aug 2026, 23:00 UTC.
  2. Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $78,877 at 25 Aug 2026, 23:00 UTC.
  3. r = 78876.87 / 78734.61 − 1 = +0.18%
  4. Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = +0.18% against a neutral band of ±1.00% → neutral

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset
Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction
▲ Bullish
Intent
inferred
Horizon
24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span
“why he is bullish on bitcoin”
Confidence
90%
Review state
auto accepted
Model / prompt
gemini-3.1-flash-lite · prompt-v1

Outcome record

Status
neutral
Baseline price
$78,735
Evaluation price
$78,877
Move
+0.18%
Neutral threshold
±1.00%
Price provider
coinbase
Evaluated at
13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
Policy version
v1.0

Request a correction