Prediction evidence
correctPolicy v1.0Source post
Published 23 Aug 2026, 19:10 UTC · fetched 12 Oct 2026, 06:16 UTC
How this was scored
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
- Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $77,328 at 23 Aug 2026, 20:00 UTC.
- Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $78,746 at 24 Aug 2026, 20:00 UTC.
r = 78746.35 / 77328.3 − 1 = +1.83%- Direction d = +1 (bullish), so
d × r = +1.83%against a neutral band of ±1.00% → correct
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
AI interpretation
Uses only text available at publication time
- Asset
- Bitcoin (BTC)
- Direction
- ▲ Bullish
- Intent
- inferred
- Horizon
- 24 hours (default, none stated)
- Evidence span
- “$80k Bitcoin is in sight”
- Confidence
- 80%
- Review state
- auto accepted
- Model / prompt
- gemini-3.1-flash-lite · prompt-v1
Outcome record
- Status
- correct
- Baseline price
- $77,328
- Evaluation price
- $78,746
- Move
- +1.83%
- Neutral threshold
- ±1.00%
- Price provider
- coinbase
- Evaluated at
- 13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
- Policy version
- v1.0