Prediction evidence
incorrectPolicy v1.0Source post
Published 22 Aug 2026, 05:40 UTC · fetched 13 Oct 2026, 05:55 UTC
🐧
@Pentosh1
In reply to · 22 Aug 2026, 05:20 UTC · context given to the AI
pure luck btwi sold the full stack of zec and 5,989 of the hype. here at 790 and 79. wasnt meant to be a swing or anything. was literally just hoping to get a scam wick and got incredibly lucky. and thats what that was. luck. kept the extra 10k hype bc thats my focus. also had bids on btc at 74,450 but they didnt hit. although ill keep those open.View original on X ↗
How this was scored
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
- Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $77,370 at 22 Aug 2026, 06:00 UTC.
- Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $76,049 at 23 Aug 2026, 06:00 UTC.
r = 76048.57 / 77369.81 − 1 = -1.71%- Direction d = +1 (bullish), so
d × r = -1.71%against a neutral band of ±1.00% → incorrect
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
AI interpretation
Uses only text available at publication time
- Asset
- Bitcoin (BTC)
- Direction
- ▲ Bullish
- Intent
- inferred
- Horizon
- 24 hours (default, none stated)
- Evidence span
- “also had bids on btc at 74,450 but they didnt hit. although ill keep those open.”
- Confidence
- 80%
- Review state
- auto accepted
- Model / prompt
- gemini-3.1-flash-lite · prompt-v1
Outcome record
- Status
- incorrect
- Baseline price
- $77,370
- Evaluation price
- $76,049
- Move
- -1.71%
- Neutral threshold
- ±1.00%
- Price provider
- coinbase
- Evaluated at
- 13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
- Policy version
- v1.0