Prediction evidence
incorrectPolicy v1.0Source post
Published 21 Aug 2026, 22:16 UTC · fetched 13 Oct 2026, 05:56 UTC
Wendy O
@CryptoWendyO
Quoting · 21 Aug 2026, 21:58 UTC · context given to the AI
JUST IN: Ethereum just broke $2,500 for the first time in nearly 7 months$10,000 ETHEREUM IS PROGRAMED OMG I WILL BE VINDICATED https://t.co/Zfj4rrrC9u https://t.co/eo0nK0G7WZView original on X ↗
How this was scored
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
- Baseline: first ETH price at or after publication, $2,522 at 21 Aug 2026, 23:00 UTC.
- Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $2,414 at 22 Aug 2026, 23:00 UTC.
r = 2413.8 / 2521.54 − 1 = -4.27%- Direction d = +1 (bullish), so
d × r = -4.27%against a neutral band of ±1.25% → incorrect
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
AI interpretation
Uses only text available at publication time
- Asset
- Ethereum (ETH)
- Direction
- ▲ Bullish
- Intent
- explicit
- Horizon
- 24 hours (default, none stated)
- Evidence span
- “$10,000 ETHEREUM IS PROGRAMED”
- Confidence
- 100%
- Review state
- auto accepted
- Model / prompt
- gemini-3.1-flash-lite · prompt-v1
Outcome record
- Status
- incorrect
- Baseline price
- $2,522
- Evaluation price
- $2,414
- Move
- -4.27%
- Neutral threshold
- ±1.25%
- Price provider
- coinbase
- Evaluated at
- 13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
- Policy version
- v1.0