Prediction evidence
neutralPolicy v1.0Source post
Published 21 Aug 2026, 15:51 UTC · fetched 13 Oct 2026, 05:56 UTC
K A L E O
@CryptoKaleo
$ETH / bitcoin:native I think we see a move back to the .08+ range a lot faster than what most people are ready for when this really starts to move. https://t.co/Q46SnN1OKeView original on X ↗
How this was scored
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
- Baseline: first ETH price at or after publication, $2,393 at 21 Aug 2026, 16:00 UTC.
- Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $2,411 at 22 Aug 2026, 16:00 UTC.
r = 2410.54 / 2392.7 − 1 = +0.75%- Direction d = +1 (bullish), so
d × r = +0.75%against a neutral band of ±1.25% → neutral
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
AI interpretation
Uses only text available at publication time
- Asset
- Ethereum (ETH)
- Direction
- ▲ Bullish
- Intent
- explicit
- Horizon
- 24 hours (default, none stated)
- Evidence span
- “I think we see a move back to the .08+ range”
- Confidence
- 80%
- Review state
- auto accepted
- Model / prompt
- gemini-3.1-flash-lite · prompt-v1
Outcome record
- Status
- neutral
- Baseline price
- $2,393
- Evaluation price
- $2,411
- Move
- +0.75%
- Neutral threshold
- ±1.25%
- Price provider
- coinbase
- Evaluated at
- 13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
- Policy version
- v1.0
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