Prediction evidence
correctPolicy v1.0Source post
Published 21 Aug 2026, 01:58 UTC · fetched 12 Oct 2026, 06:35 UTC
Anthony Pompliano 🌪
@APompliano
I couldn’t make it this year, but the initial reviews from @Scaramucci’s Wyoming conference have been excellent. General feedback is that large rooms of smart people are very bullish on AI, bitcoin, tokenization, and stablecoins. @SALTConference is always A+View original on X ↗
How this was scored
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
- Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $75,103 at 21 Aug 2026, 02:00 UTC.
- Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $77,821 at 22 Aug 2026, 02:00 UTC.
r = 77821.05 / 75103.21 − 1 = +3.62%- Direction d = +1 (bullish), so
d × r = +3.62%against a neutral band of ±1.00% → correct
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
AI interpretation
Uses only text available at publication time
- Asset
- Bitcoin (BTC)
- Direction
- ▲ Bullish
- Intent
- inferred
- Horizon
- 24 hours (default, none stated)
- Evidence span
- “General feedback is that large rooms of smart people are very bullish on AI, bitcoin, tokenization, and stablecoins.”
- Confidence
- 80%
- Review state
- auto accepted
- Model / prompt
- gemini-3.1-flash-lite · prompt-v1
Outcome record
- Status
- correct
- Baseline price
- $75,103
- Evaluation price
- $77,821
- Move
- +3.62%
- Neutral threshold
- ±1.00%
- Price provider
- coinbase
- Evaluated at
- 13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
- Policy version
- v1.0