Prediction evidence
correctPolicy v1.0Source post
Published 20 Aug 2026, 13:43 UTC · fetched 12 Oct 2026, 06:30 UTC
The Wolf Of All Streets
@scottmelker
Quoting · 20 Aug 2026, 13:03 UTC · context given to the AI
Bitcoin EXPLODES to $72K as Record $3B Shorts Get WIPED https://t.co/oGji57rmWdMassive bullish signal for the crypto market: $ETH almost outperformed bitcoin:native by DOUBLE "Ethereum almost outperformed Bitcoin by double, which I view as a massive bullish signal for the crypto market, because this wasn't just Bitcoin money" "We had Ethereum, crypto money coming in" "We had all kinds of additional evidence here that actual money is coming in"View original on X ↗
How this was scored
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
- Baseline: first ETH price at or after publication, $2,275 at 20 Aug 2026, 14:00 UTC.
- Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $2,386 at 21 Aug 2026, 14:00 UTC.
r = 2386.31 / 2275.19 − 1 = +4.88%- Direction d = +1 (bullish), so
d × r = +4.88%against a neutral band of ±1.25% → correct
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
AI interpretation
Uses only text available at publication time
- Asset
- Ethereum (ETH)
- Direction
- ▲ Bullish
- Intent
- explicit
- Horizon
- 24 hours (default, none stated)
- Evidence span
- “Massive bullish signal for the crypto market: $ETH almost outperformed bitcoin:native by DOUBLE”
- Confidence
- 90%
- Review state
- auto accepted
- Model / prompt
- gemini-3.1-flash-lite · prompt-v1
Outcome record
- Status
- correct
- Baseline price
- $2,275
- Evaluation price
- $2,386
- Move
- +4.88%
- Neutral threshold
- ±1.25%
- Price provider
- coinbase
- Evaluated at
- 13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
- Policy version
- v1.0