Prediction evidence
incorrectPolicy v1.0Source post
Published 19 Aug 2026, 20:08 UTC · fetched 12 Oct 2026, 06:16 UTC
How this was scored
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
- Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $69,034 at 19 Aug 2026, 21:00 UTC.
- Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $72,660 at 20 Aug 2026, 21:00 UTC.
r = 72660.23 / 69033.59 − 1 = +5.25%- Direction d = −1 (bearish), so
d × r = -5.25%against a neutral band of ±1.00% → incorrect
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
AI interpretation
Uses only text available at publication time
- Asset
- Bitcoin (BTC)
- Direction
- ▼ Bearish
- Intent
- explicit
- Horizon
- 24 hours (default, none stated)
- Evidence span
- “"this rally will fail like all the others"”
- Confidence
- 80%
- Review state
- auto accepted
- Model / prompt
- gemini-3.1-flash-lite · prompt-v1
Outcome record
- Status
- incorrect
- Baseline price
- $69,034
- Evaluation price
- $72,660
- Move
- +5.25%
- Neutral threshold
- ±1.00%
- Price provider
- coinbase
- Evaluated at
- 13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
- Policy version
- v1.0