Prediction evidence
unscoredPolicy v1.0Source post
Published 19 Aug 2026, 16:36 UTC · fetched 12 Oct 2026, 06:30 UTC
The Wolf Of All Streets
@scottmelker
Quoting · 19 Aug 2026, 16:02 UTC · context given to the AI
https://t.co/AsSepHM9P3When Treasury starts buying its own bonds, the Fed stops being the story "What the Fed does is effectively irrelevant right now. This is clearly a step towards fiscal dominance, to have these bond buybacks. But the Fed needs to cut rates, if you believe that the bond market would actually believe it" "Remember, when Powell cut rates, yields went up. So it didn't have exactly the desired effect. But if you believe it would operate the way it should, they cut rates, they can refinance some of this debt that's coming due, not go from paying 2% or 3% to paying 4% or 5%, and try to bring down the debt service" "Right now the debt service is the largest line item on our budget sheet, and it is only growing rapidly" "That's why we Bitcoin. This is absurd. It's a completely broken system that we are living within, and good luck trying to fix it"View original on X ↗
How this was scored
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
unscored Repeat call within an existing 24h episode
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
Same 24h episode
Repeated same-asset, same-direction calls count once, anchored to the first eligible post
- “I’ve been making the case for a bottom since February. Here were my thoughts in June. They still stand, with more evidence piling in.”Repeat20 Aug 2026, 12:12 UTC
AI interpretation
Uses only text available at publication time
- Asset
- Bitcoin (BTC)
- Direction
- ▲ Bullish
- Intent
- inferred
- Horizon
- 24 hours (default, none stated)
- Evidence span
- “That's why we Bitcoin.”
- Confidence
- 80%
- Review state
- auto accepted
- Model / prompt
- gemini-3.1-flash-lite · prompt-v1
Outcome record
- Status
- unscored
- Baseline price
- —
- Evaluation price
- —
- Move
- —
- Neutral threshold
- ±1.00%
- Price provider
- —
- Evaluated at
- 13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
- Policy version
- v1.0
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