Prediction evidence

unscoredPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 19 Aug 2026, 16:36 UTC · fetched 12 Oct 2026, 06:30 UTC

The Wolf Of All Streets

@scottmelker

Quoting · 19 Aug 2026, 16:02 UTC · context given to the AI

https://t.co/AsSepHM9P3
When Treasury starts buying its own bonds, the Fed stops being the story "What the Fed does is effectively irrelevant right now. This is clearly a step towards fiscal dominance, to have these bond buybacks. But the Fed needs to cut rates, if you believe that the bond market would actually believe it" "Remember, when Powell cut rates, yields went up. So it didn't have exactly the desired effect. But if you believe it would operate the way it should, they cut rates, they can refinance some of this debt that's coming due, not go from paying 2% or 3% to paying 4% or 5%, and try to bring down the debt service" "Right now the debt service is the largest line item on our budget sheet, and it is only growing rapidly" "That's why we Bitcoin. This is absurd. It's a completely broken system that we are living within, and good luck trying to fix it"
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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

unscored Repeat call within an existing 24h episode

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

Same 24h episode

Repeated same-asset, same-direction calls count once, anchored to the first eligible post

  • “I’ve been making the case for a bottom since February. Here were my thoughts in June. They still stand, with more evidence piling in.”Repeat20 Aug 2026, 12:12 UTC

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset
Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction
▲ Bullish
Intent
inferred
Horizon
24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span
“That's why we Bitcoin.”
Confidence
80%
Review state
auto accepted
Model / prompt
gemini-3.1-flash-lite · prompt-v1

Outcome record

Status
unscored
Baseline price
—
Evaluation price
—
Move
—
Neutral threshold
±1.00%
Price provider
—
Evaluated at
13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
Policy version
v1.0

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