Prediction evidence
correctPolicy v1.0Source post
Published 19 Aug 2026, 15:06 UTC · fetched 12 Oct 2026, 06:30 UTC
How this was scored
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
- Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $68,512 at 19 Aug 2026, 16:00 UTC.
- Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $72,429 at 20 Aug 2026, 16:00 UTC.
r = 72429.27 / 68511.94 − 1 = +5.72%- Direction d = +1 (bullish), so
d × r = +5.72%against a neutral band of ±1.00% → correct
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
AI interpretation
Uses only text available at publication time
- Asset
- Bitcoin (BTC)
- Direction
- ▲ Bullish
- Intent
- inferred
- Horizon
- 24 hours (default, none stated)
- Evidence span
- “Bitcoin sending.”
- Confidence
- 80%
- Review state
- auto accepted
- Model / prompt
- gemini-3.1-flash-lite · prompt-v1
Outcome record
- Status
- correct
- Baseline price
- $68,512
- Evaluation price
- $72,429
- Move
- +5.72%
- Neutral threshold
- ±1.00%
- Price provider
- coinbase
- Evaluated at
- 13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
- Policy version
- v1.0