Prediction evidence

unscoredPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 17 Aug 2026, 16:19 UTC · fetched 12 Oct 2026, 06:30 UTC

The Wolf Of All Streets

@scottmelker

Quoting · 17 Aug 2026, 13:02 UTC · context given to the AI

Bitcoin SHOULD Be Falling - So Why Isn’t It? https://t.co/Yskg9fzeto
Dave says the Strait of Hormuz won't matter within 10 years "The truth is oil can be produced dramatically cheaper than it is today, but it can't be delivered, and that is creating all these supply bottlenecks" "It's also true, as Mike has pointed out many times, that these sorts of supply bottlenecks always get resolved one way or another. Markets do have a pretty good way of doing that" "There's all sorts of things going on in the Middle East to take the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz from a position of importance to a position of, okay it matters, to okay whatever, we can just route around it. Within 10 years it will not matter" "I'm very happy making that prediction, saying that the Strait of Hormuz could literally be blocked completely and it won't matter"
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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

unscored Awaiting manual review

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset
Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction
▲ Bullish
Intent
inferred
Horizon
24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span
“Within 10 years it will not matter”
Confidence
50%
Review state
needs review · Low confidence (50%); Unsupported horizon: "10 years"
Model / prompt
gemini-3.1-flash-lite · prompt-v1

Outcome record

Status
unscored
Baseline price
—
Evaluation price
—
Move
—
Neutral threshold
±1.00%
Price provider
—
Evaluated at
13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
Policy version
v1.0

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