Prediction evidence
unscoredPolicy v1.0Source post
Published 17 Aug 2026, 16:19 UTC · fetched 12 Oct 2026, 06:30 UTC
The Wolf Of All Streets
@scottmelker
Quoting · 17 Aug 2026, 13:02 UTC · context given to the AI
Bitcoin SHOULD Be Falling - So Why Isn’t It? https://t.co/Yskg9fzetoDave says the Strait of Hormuz won't matter within 10 years "The truth is oil can be produced dramatically cheaper than it is today, but it can't be delivered, and that is creating all these supply bottlenecks" "It's also true, as Mike has pointed out many times, that these sorts of supply bottlenecks always get resolved one way or another. Markets do have a pretty good way of doing that" "There's all sorts of things going on in the Middle East to take the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz from a position of importance to a position of, okay it matters, to okay whatever, we can just route around it. Within 10 years it will not matter" "I'm very happy making that prediction, saying that the Strait of Hormuz could literally be blocked completely and it won't matter"View original on X ↗
How this was scored
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
unscored Awaiting manual review
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
AI interpretation
Uses only text available at publication time
- Asset
- Bitcoin (BTC)
- Direction
- ▲ Bullish
- Intent
- inferred
- Horizon
- 24 hours (default, none stated)
- Evidence span
- “Within 10 years it will not matter”
- Confidence
- 50%
- Review state
- needs review · Low confidence (50%); Unsupported horizon: "10 years"
- Model / prompt
- gemini-3.1-flash-lite · prompt-v1
Outcome record
- Status
- unscored
- Baseline price
- —
- Evaluation price
- —
- Move
- —
- Neutral threshold
- ±1.00%
- Price provider
- —
- Evaluated at
- 13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
- Policy version
- v1.0
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