Prediction evidence
incorrectPolicy v1.0Source post
Published 17 Aug 2026, 12:12 UTC · fetched 12 Oct 2026, 06:16 UTC
How this was scored
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
- Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $63,478 at 17 Aug 2026, 13:00 UTC.
- Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $64,162 at 18 Aug 2026, 13:00 UTC.
r = 64161.67 / 63478.25 − 1 = +1.08%- Direction d = −1 (bearish), so
d × r = -1.08%against a neutral band of ±1.00% → incorrect
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
AI interpretation
Uses only text available at publication time
- Asset
- Bitcoin (BTC)
- Direction
- ▼ Bearish
- Intent
- explicit
- Horizon
- 24 hours (default, none stated)
- Evidence span
- “Bitcoin will crash again.”
- Confidence
- 90%
- Review state
- auto accepted
- Model / prompt
- gemini-3.1-flash-lite · prompt-v1
Outcome record
- Status
- incorrect
- Baseline price
- $63,478
- Evaluation price
- $64,162
- Move
- +1.08%
- Neutral threshold
- ±1.00%
- Price provider
- coinbase
- Evaluated at
- 13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
- Policy version
- v1.0