Prediction evidence
incorrectPolicy v1.0Source post
Published 16 Aug 2026, 18:26 UTC · fetched 13 Oct 2026, 05:55 UTC
Michaël van de Poppe
@CryptoMichNL
Classic Sunday move upwards on the markets for #Bitcoin. I wouldn’t trust it. It makes it slightly more clear we’ll sweep lower tomorrow/Tuesday (also on equities) before we aim to go higher.View original on X ↗
How this was scored
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
- Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $63,074 at 16 Aug 2026, 19:00 UTC.
- Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $64,381 at 17 Aug 2026, 19:00 UTC.
r = 64380.58 / 63074.3 − 1 = +2.07%- Direction d = −1 (bearish), so
d × r = -2.07%against a neutral band of ±1.00% → incorrect
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
AI interpretation
Uses only text available at publication time
- Asset
- Bitcoin (BTC)
- Direction
- ▼ Bearish
- Intent
- explicit
- Horizon
- 24 hours (stated in post)
- Evidence span
- “It makes it slightly more clear we’ll sweep lower tomorrow/Tuesday”
- Confidence
- 70%
- Review state
- auto accepted
- Model / prompt
- gemini-3.1-flash-lite · prompt-v1
Outcome record
- Status
- incorrect
- Baseline price
- $63,074
- Evaluation price
- $64,381
- Move
- +2.07%
- Neutral threshold
- ±1.00%
- Price provider
- coinbase
- Evaluated at
- 13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
- Policy version
- v1.0
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