Prediction evidence
incorrectPolicy v1.0Source post
Published 13 Aug 2026, 13:40 UTC · fetched 13 Oct 2026, 05:55 UTC
Michaël van de Poppe
@CryptoMichNL
The data comes out and it's better than projected. PPI: PPI Y/Y: 4.7% vs 4.9% exp PPI M/M: 0.0% vs 0.2% exp Core PPI Y/Y: 4.2% vs 4.2% exp Core PPI M/M: 0.2% vs 0.3% exp That means that PPI shows that inflation is getting lower, and therefore, markets are reacting in a positive manner. The Yields (2-Year) are in a downtrend for the first time since March '26. Great signs for #Bitcoin.View original on X ↗
How this was scored
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
- Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $63,653 at 13 Aug 2026, 14:00 UTC.
- Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $62,594 at 14 Aug 2026, 14:00 UTC.
r = 62594.3 / 63653.04 − 1 = -1.66%- Direction d = +1 (bullish), so
d × r = -1.66%against a neutral band of ±1.00% → incorrect
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
AI interpretation
Uses only text available at publication time
- Asset
- Bitcoin (BTC)
- Direction
- ▲ Bullish
- Intent
- inferred
- Horizon
- 24 hours (default, none stated)
- Evidence span
- “Great signs for #Bitcoin.”
- Confidence
- 80%
- Review state
- auto accepted
- Model / prompt
- gemini-3.1-flash-lite · prompt-v1
Outcome record
- Status
- incorrect
- Baseline price
- $63,653
- Evaluation price
- $62,594
- Move
- -1.66%
- Neutral threshold
- ±1.00%
- Price provider
- coinbase
- Evaluated at
- 13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
- Policy version
- v1.0
Request a correction
Think the interpretation or outcome is wrong? Sign in with X to request a correction, so reviewers know who is asking.
Sign in to request a correction