Prediction evidence
neutralPolicy v1.0Source post
Published 12 Aug 2026, 14:23 UTC · fetched 12 Oct 2026, 06:35 UTC
Anthony Pompliano 🌪
@APompliano
This conversation with NBA Champion @TThompson was very impressive. He has strong views on bitcoin, AI, SpaceX, prediction markets, financial literacy, and how analytics are reshaping sports. Feedback has been stronger than usual, so give it a listen or watch. YouTube: https://t.co/HgFKFfwAIK Spotify: https://t.co/X1q16cIQ7C Apple: https://t.co/TF2s7a1AEg TIMESTAMPS: 0:00 - Intro 0:51 - How AI & tech are transforming pro sports 5:37 - Transitioning from NBA champion to tech investor 8:49 - How Tristan evaluates AI investments 12:51 - Why Tristan is bullish on bitcoin 17:30 - Prediction markets & sports gambling 19:10 - Financial literacy & his legacy beyond basketball 21:48 - A company he's really excited aboutView original on X ↗
How this was scored
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
- Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $63,297 at 12 Aug 2026, 15:00 UTC.
- Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $63,797 at 13 Aug 2026, 15:00 UTC.
r = 63797.14 / 63296.71 − 1 = +0.79%- Direction d = +1 (bullish), so
d × r = +0.79%against a neutral band of ±1.00% → neutral
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
AI interpretation
Uses only text available at publication time
- Asset
- Bitcoin (BTC)
- Direction
- ▲ Bullish
- Intent
- explicit
- Horizon
- 24 hours (default, none stated)
- Evidence span
- “Why Tristan is bullish on bitcoin”
- Confidence
- 100%
- Review state
- auto accepted
- Model / prompt
- gemini-3.1-flash-lite · prompt-v1
Outcome record
- Status
- neutral
- Baseline price
- $63,297
- Evaluation price
- $63,797
- Move
- +0.79%
- Neutral threshold
- ±1.00%
- Price provider
- coinbase
- Evaluated at
- 13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
- Policy version
- v1.0