Prediction evidence
neutralPolicy v1.0Source post
Published 12 Aug 2026, 10:45 UTC · fetched 13 Oct 2026, 05:55 UTC
Michaël van de Poppe
@CryptoMichNL
It's CPI day. One of the most important days of the month as it clearly defines the trajectory going forward. CPI projects: CPI Y/Y: 3.4% CPI M/M: 0.1% Core CPI Y/Y: 2.5% Core CPI M/M: 0.2% It's relatively simple for #Bitcoin and risk-on assets. If the upcoming data comes in lower (means: better), then the expectations are: - Yields go down - Dollar could go down - Risk-on assets including #Bitcoin have a strong move upwards. - Expectations for a FED rate hike will go down Recent data points in June and July have been softer, and as a result, #Bitcoin rallied up by 11% and 8%. Clearly, if this isn't the case and the data might be hitting higher grounds, we'll need to be aware of the fact that #Bitcoin can easily continue falling down to $60,000.View original on X ↗
How this was scored
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
- Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $64,080 at 12 Aug 2026, 11:00 UTC.
- Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $63,582 at 13 Aug 2026, 11:00 UTC.
r = 63582.41 / 64079.99 − 1 = -0.78%- Direction d = −1 (bearish), so
d × r = +0.78%against a neutral band of ±1.00% → neutral
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
AI interpretation
Uses only text available at publication time
- Asset
- Bitcoin (BTC)
- Direction
- ▼ Bearish
- Intent
- explicit
- Horizon
- 24 hours (default, none stated)
- Evidence span
- “Clearly, if this isn't the case and the data might be hitting higher grounds, we'll need to be aware of the fact that #Bitcoin can easily continue falling down to $60,000.”
- Confidence
- 70%
- Review state
- auto accepted
- Model / prompt
- gemini-3.1-flash-lite · prompt-v1
Outcome record
- Status
- neutral
- Baseline price
- $64,080
- Evaluation price
- $63,582
- Move
- -0.78%
- Neutral threshold
- ±1.00%
- Price provider
- coinbase
- Evaluated at
- 13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
- Policy version
- v1.0
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