Prediction evidence
incorrectPolicy v1.0Source post
Published 12 Aug 2026, 10:14 UTC · fetched 13 Oct 2026, 05:55 UTC
Michaël van de Poppe
@CryptoMichNL
$ETH looks so ready for a big breakout upwards. Great consolidation and it keeps making higher lows. Volatility is low, range is tight, meaning that the breakout will be super volatile. Once it does, I don't think it will stall soon, my first target zone is at $2,300. Good data coming in from CPI?View original on X ↗
How this was scored
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
- Baseline: first ETH price at or after publication, $1,908 at 12 Aug 2026, 11:00 UTC.
- Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $1,881 at 13 Aug 2026, 11:00 UTC.
r = 1881.07 / 1907.51 − 1 = -1.39%- Direction d = +1 (bullish), so
d × r = -1.39%against a neutral band of ±1.25% → incorrect
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
AI interpretation
Uses only text available at publication time
- Asset
- Ethereum (ETH)
- Direction
- ▲ Bullish
- Intent
- explicit
- Horizon
- 24 hours (default, none stated)
- Evidence span
- “$ETH looks so ready for a big breakout upwards.”
- Confidence
- 90%
- Review state
- auto accepted
- Model / prompt
- gemini-3.1-flash-lite · prompt-v1
Outcome record
- Status
- incorrect
- Baseline price
- $1,908
- Evaluation price
- $1,881
- Move
- -1.39%
- Neutral threshold
- ±1.25%
- Price provider
- coinbase
- Evaluated at
- 13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
- Policy version
- v1.0
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