Prediction evidence
correctPolicy v1.0Source post
Published 4 Aug 2026, 23:12 UTC · fetched 13 Oct 2026, 05:56 UTC
K A L E O
@CryptoKaleo
Quoting · 4 Aug 2026, 13:22 UTC · context given to the AI
#Ethereum / ethereum:native Another few weeks of chop before the final leg down of this bear market. Then up only. You can countertrade me with perps on Kalshi ➡️ https://t.co/8O9rYuaiGf https://t.co/FXotvBKF1u https://t.co/jQrOfdN0Qt$ETH / $BTC One last bear trap, then the return of alt season. https://t.co/kkfi5sqoeY https://t.co/HyAPifTfOCView original on X ↗
How this was scored
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
- Baseline: first ETH price at or after publication, $1,868 at 5 Aug 2026, 00:00 UTC.
- Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $1,907 at 6 Aug 2026, 00:00 UTC.
r = 1907.29 / 1868.38 − 1 = +2.08%- Direction d = +1 (bullish), so
d × r = +2.08%against a neutral band of ±1.25% → correct
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
AI interpretation
Uses only text available at publication time
- Asset
- Ethereum (ETH)
- Direction
- ▲ Bullish
- Intent
- explicit
- Horizon
- 24 hours (default, none stated)
- Evidence span
- “One last bear trap, then the return of alt season.”
- Confidence
- 80%
- Review state
- auto accepted
- Model / prompt
- gemini-3.1-flash-lite · prompt-v1
Outcome record
- Status
- correct
- Baseline price
- $1,868
- Evaluation price
- $1,907
- Move
- +2.08%
- Neutral threshold
- ±1.25%
- Price provider
- coinbase
- Evaluated at
- 13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
- Policy version
- v1.0
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