Prediction evidence
neutralPolicy v1.0Source post
Published 4 Aug 2026, 20:28 UTC · fetched 12 Oct 2026, 06:17 UTC
Altcoin Daily
@AltcoinDaily
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan: "I continue to think #bitcoin is on a path to $1,000,000." https://t.co/hEXsrgkNfFView original on X ↗
How this was scored
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
- Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $64,299 at 4 Aug 2026, 21:00 UTC.
- Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $64,780 at 5 Aug 2026, 21:00 UTC.
r = 64780.24 / 64299.08 − 1 = +0.75%- Direction d = +1 (bullish), so
d × r = +0.75%against a neutral band of ±1.00% → neutral
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
AI interpretation
Uses only text available at publication time
- Asset
- Bitcoin (BTC)
- Direction
- ▲ Bullish
- Intent
- inferred
- Horizon
- 24 hours (default, none stated)
- Evidence span
- “I continue to think #bitcoin is on a path to $1,000,000.”
- Confidence
- 90%
- Review state
- auto accepted
- Model / prompt
- gemini-3.1-flash-lite · prompt-v1
Outcome record
- Status
- neutral
- Baseline price
- $64,299
- Evaluation price
- $64,780
- Move
- +0.75%
- Neutral threshold
- ±1.00%
- Price provider
- coinbase
- Evaluated at
- 13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
- Policy version
- v1.0
Request a correction
Think the interpretation or outcome is wrong? Sign in with X to request a correction, so reviewers know who is asking.
Sign in to request a correction