Prediction evidence
correctPolicy v1.0Source post
Published 4 Aug 2026, 17:04 UTC · fetched 12 Oct 2026, 06:25 UTC
Ash Crypto
@AshCrypto
S&P 500 just hit a new all-time high. NASDAQ is about to follow. The Bitcoin catch-up rally is going to be insane. https://t.co/OWtTJzmiQvView original on X ↗
How this was scored
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
- Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $63,919 at 4 Aug 2026, 18:00 UTC.
- Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $64,694 at 5 Aug 2026, 18:00 UTC.
r = 64694.25 / 63918.95 − 1 = +1.21%- Direction d = +1 (bullish), so
d × r = +1.21%against a neutral band of ±1.00% → correct
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
AI interpretation
Uses only text available at publication time
- Asset
- Bitcoin (BTC)
- Direction
- ▲ Bullish
- Intent
- inferred
- Horizon
- 24 hours (default, none stated)
- Evidence span
- “The Bitcoin catch-up rally is going to be insane.”
- Confidence
- 90%
- Review state
- auto accepted
- Model / prompt
- gemini-3.1-flash-lite · prompt-v1
Outcome record
- Status
- correct
- Baseline price
- $63,919
- Evaluation price
- $64,694
- Move
- +1.21%
- Neutral threshold
- ±1.00%
- Price provider
- coinbase
- Evaluated at
- 13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
- Policy version
- v1.0
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