Prediction evidence
correctPolicy v1.0Source post
Published 4 Aug 2026, 16:02 UTC · fetched 13 Oct 2026, 05:55 UTC
Michaël van de Poppe
@CryptoMichNL
The next leg upwards for #Bitcoin will be to the $85,000 area. That's where the 50-Week MA currently lies and that's what I'm expecting to see as the next hurdle to take. I don't think we'll dive deeper as much for #Bitcoin as of yet, as most of the pain (90-95%) of the bear market is already in.View original on X ↗
How this was scored
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
- Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $63,900 at 4 Aug 2026, 17:00 UTC.
- Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $64,606 at 5 Aug 2026, 17:00 UTC.
r = 64606.02 / 63899.71 − 1 = +1.11%- Direction d = +1 (bullish), so
d × r = +1.11%against a neutral band of ±1.00% → correct
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
AI interpretation
Uses only text available at publication time
- Asset
- Bitcoin (BTC)
- Direction
- ▲ Bullish
- Intent
- explicit
- Horizon
- 24 hours (default, none stated)
- Evidence span
- “The next leg upwards for #Bitcoin will be to the $85,000 area.”
- Confidence
- 80%
- Review state
- auto accepted
- Model / prompt
- gemini-3.1-flash-lite · prompt-v1
Outcome record
- Status
- correct
- Baseline price
- $63,900
- Evaluation price
- $64,606
- Move
- +1.11%
- Neutral threshold
- ±1.00%
- Price provider
- coinbase
- Evaluated at
- 13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
- Policy version
- v1.0
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