Prediction evidence
unscoredPolicy v1.0Source post
Published 4 Aug 2026, 14:24 UTC · fetched 12 Oct 2026, 06:31 UTC
The Wolf Of All Streets
@scottmelker
Quoting · 4 Aug 2026, 13:00 UTC · context given to the AI
Bitcoin’s 4-Year August Curse Is Here - Will This Time Be Different? https://t.co/qcFbB3L8Hs"If you're in the bowels of Crypto Twitter it's the era of despair, but when you talk to Morgan Stanley or Wells Fargo, it's completely different" Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan on the gap between Crypto Twitter's despair and Wall Street's calm "If you're in the bowels of Crypto Twitter, it's the era of despair, Bitcoin is over, this is the end. But when you talk to Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, UBS or Merrill Lynch, it's completely different. They started reorienting around Bitcoin two years ago, and they move in decade long cycles, so they're now pointing their guns at this industry and starting to move ahead" "That's why Morgan Stanley is launching Solana ETFs even when Solana is down from its all time high. Imagine we're six months from now and Bitcoin has rallied. Twitter, in despair right now, will recast today, they'll say Bitcoin is maturing, our pullback was only 50%, it was 75% in the last drawdown, this is exactly on trend" "That's the story at Wall Street already. They're like, Bitcoin goes in four year cycles, this one looks better than the last, of course we're going to allocate. There's no worry on Wall Street. What will Crypto Twitter say in six months is the conversation happening right now on Wall Street, this is a nice pullback, a good entry point"View original on X ↗
How this was scored
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
unscored Awaiting manual review
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
AI interpretation
Uses only text available at publication time
- Asset
- Bitcoin (BTC)
- Direction
- ▲ Bullish
- Intent
- inferred
- Horizon
- 24 hours (default, none stated)
- Evidence span
- “Imagine we're six months from now and Bitcoin has rallied.”
- Confidence
- 70%
- Review state
- needs review · Low confidence (70%); Unsupported horizon: "six months from now"
- Model / prompt
- gemini-3.1-flash-lite · prompt-v1
Outcome record
- Status
- unscored
- Baseline price
- —
- Evaluation price
- —
- Move
- —
- Neutral threshold
- ±1.00%
- Price provider
- —
- Evaluated at
- 13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
- Policy version
- v1.0
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