Prediction evidence
neutralPolicy v1.0Source post
Published 2 Aug 2026, 18:30 UTC · fetched 13 Oct 2026, 05:55 UTC
Michaël van de Poppe
@CryptoMichNL
Ultimately, the coming few days are all a matter of whether or not we'll be seeing a higher low on #Bitcoin. If that scenario does happen, I remain bullish. If $60,000 flops as support, we continue to proceed towards a test of the lows. I don't think we'll see #Bitcoin trading at $40,000.View original on X ↗
How this was scored
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
- Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $63,308 at 2 Aug 2026, 19:00 UTC.
- Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $63,812 at 3 Aug 2026, 19:00 UTC.
r = 63811.75 / 63307.58 − 1 = +0.80%- Direction d = +1 (bullish), so
d × r = +0.80%against a neutral band of ±1.00% → neutral
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
AI interpretation
Uses only text available at publication time
- Asset
- Bitcoin (BTC)
- Direction
- ▲ Bullish
- Intent
- explicit
- Horizon
- 24 hours (default, none stated)
- Evidence span
- “If that scenario does happen, I remain bullish.”
- Confidence
- 70%
- Review state
- auto accepted
- Model / prompt
- gemini-3.1-flash-lite · prompt-v1
Outcome record
- Status
- neutral
- Baseline price
- $63,308
- Evaluation price
- $63,812
- Move
- +0.80%
- Neutral threshold
- ±1.00%
- Price provider
- coinbase
- Evaluated at
- 13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
- Policy version
- v1.0
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