Prediction evidence

unscoredPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 31 Jul 2026, 13:43 UTC · fetched 13 Oct 2026, 05:55 UTC

Michaël van de Poppe

@CryptoMichNL

Quoting · 31 Jul 2026, 13:34 UTC · context given to the AI

US TREASURY HAS INFORMED BANKS THAT IT MAY INTERVENE IN YEN MARKET ON FRIDAY - SOURCE FAMILIAR WITH THE MATTER US TREASURY TOLD A NUMBER OF BANKS VIA NEW YORK FED THAT BANKS SHOULD STAND BY FOR 'FUTURE ACTIONS' - SOURCE FAMILIAR WITH THE MATTER

If this happens: Japan will sell their US bonds. The yields in the US will go down --> no reason to hold the Dollar --> the Dollar will fall --> liquidity needs to move elsewhere as the cheap money isn't available --> this will go into risk-on assets --> $NQ and $BTC to go up --> $ETH to outperform --> #Altcoins to have their first run.

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

unscored Repeat call within an existing 24h episode

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

Same 24h episode

Repeated same-asset, same-direction calls count once, anchored to the first eligible post

“If the strength on the Japanese Yen continues, and the Dollar continues to fall, It's very likely that the Yields on Government bonds will go down. It's very likely that liquidity flows towards risk-on assets. #Bitcoin's bull run then has started.”Repeat30 Jul 2026, 17:17 UTC
“As #Bitcoin continues to hold above the 21-Day MA and 50-Day MA, I continue to expect a rally towards $73,000 and potentially $83,000. https://t.co/Rg78Ts3boh”Repeat30 Jul 2026, 19:20 UTC

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▲ Bullish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “$NQ and $BTC to go up”
Confidence: 80%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gemini-3.1-flash-lite · prompt-v1

Outcome record

Status: unscored
Baseline price: —
Evaluation price: —
Move: —
Neutral threshold: ±1.00%
Price provider: —
Evaluated at: 13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
Policy version: v1.0

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