Prediction evidence
correctPolicy v1.0Source post
Published 31 Jul 2026, 10:57 UTC · fetched 13 Oct 2026, 05:56 UTC
K A L E O
@CryptoKaleo
Quoting · 31 Jul 2026, 01:43 UTC · context given to the AI
the type of wick Bitcoin makes before wiping out days worth of gains in a few candles https://t.co/jA2zliBlk2#Bitcoin / $BTC So far, that’s exactly what happened. Looks like the move lower is just getting started. Hanging on to support with lots of thin air beneath. You can countertrade me here ➡️ https://t.co/r6wwvbZ3F4 https://t.co/1ftrKZc1Dy https://t.co/unLqJmVzr7View original on X ↗
How this was scored
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
- Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $63,850 at 31 Jul 2026, 11:00 UTC.
- Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $62,998 at 1 Aug 2026, 11:00 UTC.
r = 62998.16 / 63850.42 − 1 = -1.33%- Direction d = −1 (bearish), so
d × r = +1.33%against a neutral band of ±1.00% → correct
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
AI interpretation
Uses only text available at publication time
- Asset
- Bitcoin (BTC)
- Direction
- ▼ Bearish
- Intent
- explicit
- Horizon
- 24 hours (default, none stated)
- Evidence span
- “Looks like the move lower is just getting started.”
- Confidence
- 90%
- Review state
- auto accepted
- Model / prompt
- gemini-3.1-flash-lite · prompt-v1
Outcome record
- Status
- correct
- Baseline price
- $63,850
- Evaluation price
- $62,998
- Move
- -1.33%
- Neutral threshold
- ±1.00%
- Price provider
- coinbase
- Evaluated at
- 13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
- Policy version
- v1.0
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