Prediction evidence
incorrectPolicy v1.0Source post
Published 30 Jul 2026, 21:33 UTC · fetched 13 Oct 2026, 05:55 UTC
Ansem 🐂🀄️
@blknoiz06
Quoting · 9 Jun 2026, 22:55 UTC · context given to the AI
shorting $ETH $1640, adding $1680-1700 stop $1735 target $1521, $1385, $1000, $888, $0I AM BACK AND BULLISH ETH devs are shipping actually novel things onchain. that's how bullish i am on crypto now the market moves quickly, have strong convictions, loosely held https://t.co/316Kxssz8o https://t.co/CHkW9iyg7tView original on X ↗
How this was scored
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
- Baseline: first ETH price at or after publication, $1,917 at 30 Jul 2026, 22:00 UTC.
- Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $1,860 at 31 Jul 2026, 22:00 UTC.
r = 1860.1 / 1916.88 − 1 = -2.96%- Direction d = +1 (bullish), so
d × r = -2.96%against a neutral band of ±1.25% → incorrect
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
AI interpretation
Uses only text available at publication time
- Asset
- Ethereum (ETH)
- Direction
- ▲ Bullish
- Intent
- explicit
- Horizon
- 24 hours (default, none stated)
- Evidence span
- “I AM BACK AND BULLISH ETH”
- Confidence
- 100%
- Review state
- auto accepted
- Model / prompt
- gemini-3.1-flash-lite · prompt-v1
Outcome record
- Status
- incorrect
- Baseline price
- $1,917
- Evaluation price
- $1,860
- Move
- -2.96%
- Neutral threshold
- ±1.25%
- Price provider
- coinbase
- Evaluated at
- 13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
- Policy version
- v1.0