Prediction evidence
correctPolicy v1.0Source post
Published 30 Jul 2026, 15:27 UTC · fetched 13 Oct 2026, 05:56 UTC
K A L E O
@CryptoKaleo
Quoting · 30 Jul 2026, 14:35 UTC · context given to the AI
BREAKING: Our traders forecast Ethereum will crash to $1,500 this year https://t.co/6pOIgl57sU#Ethereum / ethereum:native Lower. https://t.co/rKge7zcTyn https://t.co/PwR7tmz3xdView original on X ↗
How this was scored
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
- Baseline: first ETH price at or after publication, $1,917 at 30 Jul 2026, 16:00 UTC.
- Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $1,861 at 31 Jul 2026, 16:00 UTC.
r = 1860.5 / 1916.77 − 1 = -2.94%- Direction d = −1 (bearish), so
d × r = +2.94%against a neutral band of ±1.25% → correct
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
AI interpretation
Uses only text available at publication time
- Asset
- Ethereum (ETH)
- Direction
- ▼ Bearish
- Intent
- explicit
- Horizon
- 24 hours (default, none stated)
- Evidence span
- “#Ethereum / ethereum:native Lower.”
- Confidence
- 90%
- Review state
- auto accepted
- Model / prompt
- gemini-3.1-flash-lite · prompt-v1
Outcome record
- Status
- correct
- Baseline price
- $1,917
- Evaluation price
- $1,861
- Move
- -2.94%
- Neutral threshold
- ±1.25%
- Price provider
- coinbase
- Evaluated at
- 13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
- Policy version
- v1.0
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