Prediction evidence
incorrectPolicy v1.0Source post
Published 30 Jul 2026, 14:30 UTC · fetched 13 Oct 2026, 05:55 UTC
Michaël van de Poppe
@CryptoMichNL
The previous time that the Nasdaq bounced upwards from the lows resulted into the recent rally of #Bitcoin from $66,000 to $83,000. I think we're close to a similar situation where then Nasdaq is likely to bounce upwards and #Bitcoin will outperform to the same regions. https://t.co/FiPMD3k8q1View original on X ↗
How this was scored
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
- Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $64,615 at 30 Jul 2026, 15:00 UTC.
- Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $62,594 at 31 Jul 2026, 15:00 UTC.
r = 62594.31 / 64614.52 − 1 = -3.13%- Direction d = +1 (bullish), so
d × r = -3.13%against a neutral band of ±1.00% → incorrect
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
AI interpretation
Uses only text available at publication time
- Asset
- Bitcoin (BTC)
- Direction
- ▲ Bullish
- Intent
- explicit
- Horizon
- 24 hours (default, none stated)
- Evidence span
- “I think we're close to a similar situation where then Nasdaq is likely to bounce upwards and #Bitcoin will outperform to the same regions.”
- Confidence
- 80%
- Review state
- auto accepted
- Model / prompt
- gemini-3.1-flash-lite · prompt-v1
Outcome record
- Status
- incorrect
- Baseline price
- $64,615
- Evaluation price
- $62,594
- Move
- -3.13%
- Neutral threshold
- ±1.00%
- Price provider
- coinbase
- Evaluated at
- 13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
- Policy version
- v1.0
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