Prediction evidence
incorrectPolicy v1.0Source post
Published 30 Jul 2026, 10:47 UTC · fetched 13 Oct 2026, 05:55 UTC
Michaël van de Poppe
@CryptoMichNL
As long as $ETH remains above the 21-Day MA and the 50-Day MA, higher prices are likely going to follow. Today; - PCE Inflation - Advance GDP Big day for macroeconomic data and as Warsh mentioned, they'll be monitoring the data and the market response on their policy. If data is right, I would expect the Nasdaq to bounce and probably the momentum shifts quite quickly towards the Clarity Act. For now, I expect to see higher prices on Ethereum.View original on X ↗
How this was scored
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
- Baseline: first ETH price at or after publication, $1,916 at 30 Jul 2026, 11:00 UTC.
- Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $1,885 at 31 Jul 2026, 11:00 UTC.
r = 1885.15 / 1915.74 − 1 = -1.60%- Direction d = +1 (bullish), so
d × r = -1.60%against a neutral band of ±1.25% → incorrect
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
AI interpretation
Uses only text available at publication time
- Asset
- Ethereum (ETH)
- Direction
- ▲ Bullish
- Intent
- explicit
- Horizon
- 24 hours (default, none stated)
- Evidence span
- “For now, I expect to see higher prices on Ethereum.”
- Confidence
- 90%
- Review state
- auto accepted
- Model / prompt
- gemini-3.1-flash-lite · prompt-v1
Outcome record
- Status
- incorrect
- Baseline price
- $1,916
- Evaluation price
- $1,885
- Move
- -1.60%
- Neutral threshold
- ±1.25%
- Price provider
- coinbase
- Evaluated at
- 13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
- Policy version
- v1.0
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