Prediction evidence
correctPolicy v1.0Source post
Published 29 Jul 2026, 20:20 UTC · fetched 13 Oct 2026, 05:56 UTC
K A L E O
@CryptoKaleo
Quoting · 29 Jul 2026, 15:36 UTC · context given to the AI
BREAKING: 50% chance Bitcoin hits $50,000 before $100,000 https://t.co/IdDMBntWCJ#Bitcoin / bitcoin:native $40K is a trampoline https://t.co/hs6vcuwIIl https://t.co/6eBdEpNaqsView original on X ↗
How this was scored
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
- Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $63,437 at 29 Jul 2026, 21:00 UTC.
- Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $64,711 at 30 Jul 2026, 21:00 UTC.
r = 64711.33 / 63437.02 − 1 = +2.01%- Direction d = +1 (bullish), so
d × r = +2.01%against a neutral band of ±1.00% → correct
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
AI interpretation
Uses only text available at publication time
- Asset
- Bitcoin (BTC)
- Direction
- ▲ Bullish
- Intent
- explicit
- Horizon
- 24 hours (default, none stated)
- Evidence span
- “$40K is a trampoline”
- Confidence
- 80%
- Review state
- auto accepted
- Model / prompt
- gemini-3.1-flash-lite · prompt-v1
Outcome record
- Status
- correct
- Baseline price
- $63,437
- Evaluation price
- $64,711
- Move
- +2.01%
- Neutral threshold
- ±1.00%
- Price provider
- coinbase
- Evaluated at
- 13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
- Policy version
- v1.0
Request a correction
Think the interpretation or outcome is wrong? Sign in with X to request a correction, so reviewers know who is asking.
Sign in to request a correction