Prediction evidence
incorrectPolicy v1.0Source post
Published 29 Jul 2026, 16:33 UTC · fetched 13 Oct 2026, 05:55 UTC
Michaël van de Poppe
@CryptoMichNL
Classic dump taking place pre-FOMC, like it always happens. Traders fear a potential outcome that isn't favourable for the markets, so they sell their risk-on assets like $BTC and $NQ.View original on X ↗
How this was scored
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
- Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $63,717 at 29 Jul 2026, 17:00 UTC.
- Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $64,750 at 30 Jul 2026, 17:00 UTC.
r = 64750.44 / 63716.66 − 1 = +1.62%- Direction d = −1 (bearish), so
d × r = -1.62%against a neutral band of ±1.00% → incorrect
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
AI interpretation
Uses only text available at publication time
- Asset
- Bitcoin (BTC)
- Direction
- ▼ Bearish
- Intent
- explicit
- Horizon
- 24 hours (default, none stated)
- Evidence span
- “Classic dump taking place pre-FOMC, like it always happens.”
- Confidence
- 70%
- Review state
- auto accepted
- Model / prompt
- gemini-3.1-flash-lite · prompt-v1
Outcome record
- Status
- incorrect
- Baseline price
- $63,717
- Evaluation price
- $64,750
- Move
- +1.62%
- Neutral threshold
- ±1.00%
- Price provider
- coinbase
- Evaluated at
- 13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
- Policy version
- v1.0
Request a correction
Think the interpretation or outcome is wrong? Sign in with X to request a correction, so reviewers know who is asking.
Sign in to request a correction