Prediction evidence
incorrectPolicy v1.0Source post
Published 28 Jul 2026, 13:47 UTC · fetched 12 Oct 2026, 06:25 UTC
Ash Crypto
@AshCrypto
🚨Bitcoin and ETH are dumping hard after US Senate delayed the Crypto clarity act. https://t.co/W3IYwRgJagView original on X ↗
How this was scored
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
- Baseline: first ETH price at or after publication, $1,872 at 28 Jul 2026, 14:00 UTC.
- Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $1,907 at 29 Jul 2026, 14:00 UTC.
r = 1907.3 / 1871.9 − 1 = +1.89%- Direction d = −1 (bearish), so
d × r = -1.89%against a neutral band of ±1.25% → incorrect
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
AI interpretation
Uses only text available at publication time
- Asset
- Ethereum (ETH)
- Direction
- ▼ Bearish
- Intent
- explicit
- Horizon
- 24 hours (default, none stated)
- Evidence span
- “Bitcoin and ETH are dumping hard”
- Confidence
- 100%
- Review state
- auto accepted
- Model / prompt
- gemini-3.1-flash-lite · prompt-v1
Outcome record
- Status
- incorrect
- Baseline price
- $1,872
- Evaluation price
- $1,907
- Move
- +1.89%
- Neutral threshold
- ±1.25%
- Price provider
- coinbase
- Evaluated at
- 13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
- Policy version
- v1.0
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