Prediction evidence

Quoting · 27 Jul 2026, 16:01 UTC · context given to the AI

in a strange way think this all could be positive for BTC; i haven't been very positive on it for a while so by no stretch a permabull or optimist the competition from china from the model layer to the infra layer is causing an unwind in US/western AI all the way down the supply chain bad for frontier models, capex spenders, infra manufacturers/providers, and companies supporting these sectors; but good for companies that can consume AI and turn that into operating or commercial leverage it's also good on a relative basis for the "disrupted tech" (ie IGV) which has already violently repriced and is most likely to benefit from cheaper tokens into existing biz models/distribution which cannot be vibecoded this brings me to BTC which has, until now, been lumped into the IGV bucket as "disrupted tech" and has (rightfully so) seen capital siphoned away to chase more compelling higher ROI opportunities on the AI side; markets are mean reverting on many levels so expect some of that capital drain to potentially make its way back to these hated themes of old disrupted tech, if for no other reason than positioning (overextension of outflows and overt bearishness) if BTC narrative makers play their cards right, it can once again play the digital scarcity card; for a few quarters now, the scarcity has been on the AI side with bottlenecks of all kinds (semis, memory, rare earths, etc). The market rightfully loves scarcity and now that China is momentarily taking the wind out of the sails of the American AI scarcity trade, that momentum could very well shift back to the old digital currency scarcity if tastemakers play their cards right (Larry plz help)