Prediction evidence
incorrectPolicy v1.0Source post
Published 27 Jul 2026, 18:45 UTC · fetched 13 Oct 2026, 05:55 UTC
Michaël van de Poppe
@CryptoMichNL
A little correction on the markets for $ETH. However, if you look at the larger picture (which is the daily timeframe), it's still eyeing a continuation of the breakout towards $2,000+. https://t.co/eAxCblONViView original on X ↗
How this was scored
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
- Baseline: first ETH price at or after publication, $1,937 at 27 Jul 2026, 19:00 UTC.
- Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $1,909 at 28 Jul 2026, 19:00 UTC.
r = 1908.81 / 1937.19 − 1 = -1.47%- Direction d = +1 (bullish), so
d × r = -1.47%against a neutral band of ±1.25% → incorrect
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
AI interpretation
Uses only text available at publication time
- Asset
- Ethereum (ETH)
- Direction
- ▲ Bullish
- Intent
- explicit
- Horizon
- 24 hours (default, none stated)
- Evidence span
- “it's still eyeing a continuation of the breakout towards $2,000+.”
- Confidence
- 80%
- Review state
- auto accepted
- Model / prompt
- gemini-3.8-flash · prompt-v1
Outcome record
- Status
- incorrect
- Baseline price
- $1,937
- Evaluation price
- $1,909
- Move
- -1.47%
- Neutral threshold
- ±1.25%
- Price provider
- coinbase
- Evaluated at
- 13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
- Policy version
- v1.0
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