Prediction evidence
incorrectPolicy v1.0Source post
Published 27 Jul 2026, 17:47 UTC · fetched 13 Oct 2026, 05:55 UTC
Michaël van de Poppe
@CryptoMichNL
You don't need to see more charts apart from this one on #Bitcoin capitulation. We've hit #Bitcoin capitulation as it's been just as worse as in 2022. The inverse of that statement: 2022 was the best period to buy Bitcoin. Just like it is right now. https://t.co/kHyDoxLGVHView original on X ↗
How this was scored
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
- Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $64,951 at 27 Jul 2026, 18:00 UTC.
- Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $63,619 at 28 Jul 2026, 18:00 UTC.
r = 63619.47 / 64951.08 − 1 = -2.05%- Direction d = +1 (bullish), so
d × r = -2.05%against a neutral band of ±1.00% → incorrect
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
AI interpretation
Uses only text available at publication time
- Asset
- Bitcoin (BTC)
- Direction
- ▲ Bullish
- Intent
- inferred
- Horizon
- 24 hours (default, none stated)
- Evidence span
- “The inverse of that statement: 2022 was the best period to buy Bitcoin. Just like it is right now.”
- Confidence
- 75%
- Review state
- auto accepted
- Model / prompt
- gemini-3.8-flash · prompt-v1
Outcome record
- Status
- incorrect
- Baseline price
- $64,951
- Evaluation price
- $63,619
- Move
- -2.05%
- Neutral threshold
- ±1.00%
- Price provider
- coinbase
- Evaluated at
- 13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
- Policy version
- v1.0
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