Prediction evidence

unscoredPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 27 Jul 2026, 16:30 UTC · fetched 13 Oct 2026, 05:55 UTC

Michaël van de Poppe

@CryptoMichNL

The current valuation of #Bitcoin vs. Gold is the lowest it's ever been. The current valuation of BTC/Gold vs. the Global Money Supply is also the lowest it has ever been. It's never been out of the 2-sigma bands, however, over the past few months, it dropped out of this framework. The primary reason for the breakdown is very easily to understand: - 10/10 broke the markets entirely and liquidity was sucked away from the markets into other assets. - Gold has seen a tremendous rally, triggering a ton of upside for that asset class, dragging even more liquidity away from #Bitcoin. As the recent AI and IPO hype has swiftly faded away, I would assume that liquidity will be sucked back into the markets. #Bitcoin is currently perhaps the cheapest it has ever been. The current fair value of #Bitcoin swims at $150,000-200,000 and I'm sure that we'll see this happen in the next 12 months.
View original on X ↗

How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

unscored Awaiting manual review

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset
Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction
▲ Bullish
Intent
explicit
Horizon
24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span
“The current fair value of #Bitcoin swims at $150,000-200,000 and I'm sure that we'll see this happen in the next 12 months”
Confidence
90%
Review state
needs review · Unsupported horizon: "next 12 months"
Model / prompt
gemini-3.8-flash · prompt-v1

Outcome record

Status
unscored
Baseline price
—
Evaluation price
—
Move
—
Neutral threshold
±1.00%
Price provider
—
Evaluated at
13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
Policy version
v1.0

Request a correction

Think the interpretation or outcome is wrong? Sign in with X to request a correction, so reviewers know who is asking.

Sign in to request a correction