Prediction evidence
unscoredPolicy v1.0Source post
Published 27 Jul 2026, 16:30 UTC · fetched 13 Oct 2026, 05:55 UTC
Michaël van de Poppe
@CryptoMichNL
The current valuation of #Bitcoin vs. Gold is the lowest it's ever been. The current valuation of BTC/Gold vs. the Global Money Supply is also the lowest it has ever been. It's never been out of the 2-sigma bands, however, over the past few months, it dropped out of this framework. The primary reason for the breakdown is very easily to understand: - 10/10 broke the markets entirely and liquidity was sucked away from the markets into other assets. - Gold has seen a tremendous rally, triggering a ton of upside for that asset class, dragging even more liquidity away from #Bitcoin. As the recent AI and IPO hype has swiftly faded away, I would assume that liquidity will be sucked back into the markets. #Bitcoin is currently perhaps the cheapest it has ever been. The current fair value of #Bitcoin swims at $150,000-200,000 and I'm sure that we'll see this happen in the next 12 months.View original on X ↗
How this was scored
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
unscored Awaiting manual review
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
AI interpretation
Uses only text available at publication time
- Asset
- Bitcoin (BTC)
- Direction
- ▲ Bullish
- Intent
- explicit
- Horizon
- 24 hours (default, none stated)
- Evidence span
- “The current fair value of #Bitcoin swims at $150,000-200,000 and I'm sure that we'll see this happen in the next 12 months”
- Confidence
- 90%
- Review state
- needs review · Unsupported horizon: "next 12 months"
- Model / prompt
- gemini-3.8-flash · prompt-v1
Outcome record
- Status
- unscored
- Baseline price
- —
- Evaluation price
- —
- Move
- —
- Neutral threshold
- ±1.00%
- Price provider
- —
- Evaluated at
- 13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
- Policy version
- v1.0
Request a correction
Think the interpretation or outcome is wrong? Sign in with X to request a correction, so reviewers know who is asking.
Sign in to request a correction