Prediction evidence
incorrectPolicy v1.0Source post
Published 27 Jul 2026, 13:29 UTC · fetched 12 Oct 2026, 06:25 UTC
Ash Crypto
@AshCrypto
Bitcoin Weekly Analysis BTC closed weekly in green and still holding above the 200-week MA for the second week. Bullish signals: -Weekly MACD bullish crossover -RSI bullish divergence remains intact -Price holding above the rising 200-week MA Key Levels to watch: -Resistance: $67,000–$68,000 -Support: $63,500 and $58,000 Holding above the 200-week MA keeps the trend bullish. A break above $67,000 could lead to a stronger move higher.View original on X ↗
How this was scored
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
- Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $65,162 at 27 Jul 2026, 14:00 UTC.
- Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $63,026 at 28 Jul 2026, 14:00 UTC.
r = 63026.08 / 65161.65 − 1 = -3.28%- Direction d = +1 (bullish), so
d × r = -3.28%against a neutral band of ±1.00% → incorrect
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
AI interpretation
Uses only text available at publication time
- Asset
- Bitcoin (BTC)
- Direction
- ▲ Bullish
- Intent
- explicit
- Horizon
- 24 hours (default, none stated)
- Evidence span
- “Holding above the 200-week MA keeps the trend bullish.”
- Confidence
- 80%
- Review state
- auto accepted
- Model / prompt
- gemini-3.1-flash-lite · prompt-v1
Outcome record
- Status
- incorrect
- Baseline price
- $65,162
- Evaluation price
- $63,026
- Move
- -3.28%
- Neutral threshold
- ±1.00%
- Price provider
- coinbase
- Evaluated at
- 13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
- Policy version
- v1.0
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