Prediction evidence
incorrectPolicy v1.0Source post
Published 27 Jul 2026, 12:18 UTC · fetched 12 Oct 2026, 06:25 UTC
Ash Crypto
@AshCrypto
Last week ETFs bought 3x more ETH than Bitcoin. ETH ETFs bought $103.9M worth of $ETH Meanwhile, Bitcoin ETFs bought just $33.7M in Bitcoin. The crypto Clarity Act will benefit ETH massively and institutions know it. https://t.co/sk9qlHxdbZView original on X ↗
How this was scored
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
- Baseline: first ETH price at or after publication, $1,956 at 27 Jul 2026, 13:00 UTC.
- Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $1,890 at 28 Jul 2026, 13:00 UTC.
r = 1890.31 / 1955.94 − 1 = -3.36%- Direction d = +1 (bullish), so
d × r = -3.36%against a neutral band of ±1.25% → incorrect
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
AI interpretation
Uses only text available at publication time
- Asset
- Ethereum (ETH)
- Direction
- ▲ Bullish
- Intent
- inferred
- Horizon
- 24 hours (default, none stated)
- Evidence span
- “The crypto Clarity Act will benefit ETH massively”
- Confidence
- 80%
- Review state
- auto accepted
- Model / prompt
- gemini-3.1-flash-lite · prompt-v1
Outcome record
- Status
- incorrect
- Baseline price
- $1,956
- Evaluation price
- $1,890
- Move
- -3.36%
- Neutral threshold
- ±1.25%
- Price provider
- coinbase
- Evaluated at
- 13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
- Policy version
- v1.0
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