Prediction evidence
incorrectPolicy v1.0Source post
Published 24 Jul 2026, 07:53 UTC · fetched 13 Oct 2026, 05:55 UTC
Michaël van de Poppe
@CryptoMichNL
#Bitcoin has dipped into the oversold territory on the Puell Multiple. The last times that we've hit those ranges, it formed the bottom shortly after. It's been the same on the bottom of 2015, 2018, 2020 and 2022. This time won't be different. https://t.co/HECfUf6VHOView original on X ↗
How this was scored
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
- Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $65,456 at 24 Jul 2026, 08:00 UTC.
- Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $63,941 at 25 Jul 2026, 08:00 UTC.
r = 63941.41 / 65456.41 − 1 = -2.31%- Direction d = +1 (bullish), so
d × r = -2.31%against a neutral band of ±1.00% → incorrect
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
AI interpretation
Uses only text available at publication time
- Asset
- Bitcoin (BTC)
- Direction
- ▲ Bullish
- Intent
- inferred
- Horizon
- 24 hours (default, none stated)
- Evidence span
- “The last times that we've hit those ranges, it formed the bottom shortly after. It's been the same on the bottom of 2015, 2018, 2020 and 2022. This time won't be different.”
- Confidence
- 80%
- Review state
- auto accepted
- Model / prompt
- gemini-3.8-flash · prompt-v1
Outcome record
- Status
- incorrect
- Baseline price
- $65,456
- Evaluation price
- $63,941
- Move
- -2.31%
- Neutral threshold
- ±1.00%
- Price provider
- coinbase
- Evaluated at
- 13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
- Policy version
- v1.0
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