Prediction evidence
incorrectPolicy v1.0Source post
Published 24 Jul 2026, 00:19 UTC · fetched 13 Oct 2026, 05:56 UTC
Wendy O
@CryptoWendyO
In reply to · 24 Jul 2026, 00:04 UTC · context given to the AI
@CryptoWendyO Bullish on solana@psychononumber Me toView original on X ↗
How this was scored
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
- Baseline: first SOL price at or after publication, $75.76 at 24 Jul 2026, 01:00 UTC.
- Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $74.06 at 25 Jul 2026, 01:00 UTC.
r = 74.06 / 75.76 − 1 = -2.24%- Direction d = +1 (bullish), so
d × r = -2.24%against a neutral band of ±1.50% → incorrect
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
AI interpretation
Uses only text available at publication time
- Asset
- Solana (SOL)
- Direction
- ▲ Bullish
- Intent
- explicit
- Horizon
- 24 hours (default, none stated)
- Evidence span
- “@psychononumber Me to”
- Confidence
- 75%
- Review state
- auto accepted
- Model / prompt
- gemini-3.8-flash · prompt-v1
Outcome record
- Status
- incorrect
- Baseline price
- $75.76
- Evaluation price
- $74.06
- Move
- -2.24%
- Neutral threshold
- ±1.50%
- Price provider
- coinbase
- Evaluated at
- 13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
- Policy version
- v1.0