Prediction evidence
incorrectPolicy v1.0Source post
Published 23 Jul 2026, 21:39 UTC · fetched 12 Oct 2026, 06:25 UTC
Ash Crypto
@AshCrypto
Bitcoin will hit $150,000 ETH will hit $10,000 SOL will hit $1,000 Clarity Act will finally pass Just survive a few more months.View original on X ↗
How this was scored
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
- Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $65,120 at 23 Jul 2026, 22:00 UTC.
- Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $64,088 at 24 Jul 2026, 22:00 UTC.
r = 64088.09 / 65120.2 − 1 = -1.58%- Direction d = +1 (bullish), so
d × r = -1.58%against a neutral band of ±1.00% → incorrect
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
AI interpretation
Uses only text available at publication time
- Asset
- Bitcoin (BTC)
- Direction
- ▲ Bullish
- Intent
- explicit
- Horizon
- 24 hours (default, none stated)
- Evidence span
- “Bitcoin will hit $150,000”
- Confidence
- 90%
- Review state
- auto accepted
- Model / prompt
- gemini-3.1-flash-lite · prompt-v1
Outcome record
- Status
- incorrect
- Baseline price
- $65,120
- Evaluation price
- $64,088
- Move
- -1.58%
- Neutral threshold
- ±1.00%
- Price provider
- coinbase
- Evaluated at
- 13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
- Policy version
- v1.0
Request a correction
Think the interpretation or outcome is wrong? Sign in with X to request a correction, so reviewers know who is asking.
Sign in to request a correction