Prediction evidence
incorrectPolicy v1.0Source post
Published 22 Jul 2026, 15:43 UTC · fetched 13 Oct 2026, 05:56 UTC
K A L E O
@CryptoKaleo
Quoting · 21 Jul 2026, 02:14 UTC · context given to the AI
#Ethereum / $ETH Pump to ~$2300 through mid August Retrace and make new lows near $1200 in September Run it back in October https://t.co/bWh96dysk7 https://t.co/aklqeyoklu#Ethereum / $ETH Finally seeing a breakout. Now send it to $2400. https://t.co/mAskwZlDx7 https://t.co/5c8AS2rbvrView original on X ↗
How this was scored
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
- Baseline: first ETH price at or after publication, $1,942 at 22 Jul 2026, 16:00 UTC.
- Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $1,894 at 23 Jul 2026, 16:00 UTC.
r = 1893.97 / 1942.06 − 1 = -2.48%- Direction d = +1 (bullish), so
d × r = -2.48%against a neutral band of ±1.25% → incorrect
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
AI interpretation
Uses only text available at publication time
- Asset
- Ethereum (ETH)
- Direction
- ▲ Bullish
- Intent
- explicit
- Horizon
- 24 hours (default, none stated)
- Evidence span
- “Now send it to $2400”
- Confidence
- 85%
- Review state
- auto accepted
- Model / prompt
- gemini-3.8-flash · prompt-v1
Outcome record
- Status
- incorrect
- Baseline price
- $1,942
- Evaluation price
- $1,894
- Move
- -2.48%
- Neutral threshold
- ±1.25%
- Price provider
- coinbase
- Evaluated at
- 13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
- Policy version
- v1.0
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