Prediction evidence
correctPolicy v1.0Source post
Published 20 Jul 2026, 18:26 UTC · fetched 13 Oct 2026, 05:56 UTC
K A L E O
@CryptoKaleo
Quoting · 18 Jul 2026, 16:24 UTC · context given to the AI
#Bitcoin / bitcoin:native Looks ready https://t.co/MfRjmSJDe9 https://t.co/JBbZanVxqy#Bitcoin / bitcoin:native Send it back to the 70s https://t.co/3dCfoEmS7D https://t.co/ICvu0NFMDhView original on X ↗
How this was scored
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
- Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $65,192 at 20 Jul 2026, 19:00 UTC.
- Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $66,279 at 21 Jul 2026, 19:00 UTC.
r = 66278.65 / 65192.32 − 1 = +1.67%- Direction d = +1 (bullish), so
d × r = +1.67%against a neutral band of ±1.00% → correct
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
AI interpretation
Uses only text available at publication time
- Asset
- Bitcoin (BTC)
- Direction
- ▲ Bullish
- Intent
- explicit
- Horizon
- 24 hours (default, none stated)
- Evidence span
- “Send it back to the 70s”
- Confidence
- 85%
- Review state
- auto accepted
- Model / prompt
- gemini-3.8-flash · prompt-v1
Outcome record
- Status
- correct
- Baseline price
- $65,192
- Evaluation price
- $66,279
- Move
- +1.67%
- Neutral threshold
- ±1.00%
- Price provider
- coinbase
- Evaluated at
- 13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
- Policy version
- v1.0
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